BAL @ MIA - TNF Single Game DFS

The Ravens use double-tight end personnel nearly half the time, and prefer it about a third of the time in the red zone.

Both teams' passing rates decrease by roughly 10-15% in the red zone, except when the Dolphins run 12 personnel. Miami uses 12 personnel about 11% of the time in the red zone, and passes out of it at an 88% rate.

Notably, Tanner Connor (3) and Darren Waller (4) have combined for approximately 19% of red zone targets. While Connor is less efficient than Waller (IR), he could be a worthwhile salary relief option at FLEX with the tight end group somewhat depleted. Proceed on Connor with caution.

The Ravens have allowed 440 yards and 2 touchdowns to tight ends—an average performance—but the Dolphins typically don't prioritize tight ends in their passing game, especially in the red zone.

Miami has allowed the third-most yards to running backs (941), while Baltimore has given up the third-most touchdowns to running backs (8).

No NFL team has allowed more rushing touchdowns (four) to quarterbacks this season than the Dolphins.

Mark Andrews is the Ravens’ most targeted player in the red zone this season. However, this hasn't translated into significant production; Andrews has only 2 receptions on 4 red zone targets, and no Raven—including Andrews—has more than 1 red zone touchdown this season.

Andrews' two touchdowns came from Lamar Jackson during a home game against Detroit, a much stronger team, which could suggest some value in targeting Andrews. Players like Likely, who also has a strong rapport with Jackson, are worth considering as well.

This season, the Dolphins have allowed 60 targets, 50 receptions, 509 yards, and 3 touchdowns to tight ends.

Beyond red zone targets Andrews and Bateman, only Justice Hill has notable red zone receiving usage, having scored once. Charlie Kolar caught a touchdown last week, but with Lamar Jackson back and both Andrews and Likely in the lineup, it's questionable to rely on him again.

Jackson is 3-1 in return-from-injury games, but has a 71.0 passer rating, six passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions in those outings, per NFL Research.

Flowers is clearly the WR1 in Baltimore, but his lack of touchdown production has made him a less appealing MVP pick. Perhaps that changes this week with Lamar.

I like the idea of Rashad Bateman seeing an uptick with Lamar Jackson back. Target share and fantasy production are much more appealing for Bateman with Jackson at center. He also seems to be more efficient in the end zone and much cheaper than Flowers.

Bateman averages 4 targets with Lamar, 2 targets without Lamar.