Here are some quick facts for Thursday's matchup:
- Bills have won their last 6 Thursday night football games
- Bills have scored 28+ points in all seven wins this season; Scored 20 or less in all three losses
- Bills have not won in Houston since Nov. 19, 2006
- Josh Allen is 6-0 in Thursday primetime games; Davis Mills is 0-2
- Houston is 3-0 at home against Buffalo since 2018 (regular season + postseason)
The Texans' offensive line continues to struggle, and Marks doesn't stand out as a rusher. Meanwhile, Chubb maintained his efficiency, averaging over four yards per carry for the second straight week. According to PFF, Nick Chubb is the 22nd highest-graded rusher this season, while Marks sits at 34th. The rookie RB is last in rushing success rate (27%) and near the bottom (third to last) in EPA per rush attempt.
Ty Johnson could be a viable FLEX play, but it’s a low-usage role and would likely require him to score a touchdown to provide significant value.
With the Bills’ limited depth at receiver, players like Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis stand out as appealing options. Coupled with a strong pass-blocking offensive line, this situation is worth considering.
Mills Davis’ only game against the Bills was not so great: 11 completions on 21 attempts for 87 yards, no touchdowns, and four interceptions in a 40-0 loss in 2021.
Jayden Higgins is seeing more targets (7 in the past two games) and a 10-15% higher snap share than his typical mid-40% earlier this season.
The pass rate out of 11 personnel drops to 59% for Buffalo in the Red Zone, and makes sense when looking at the number of red zone rushes from Buffalo compared to Houston.
Red Zone Scoring Attempts - AVG.
Buffalo Bills
Standard Avg. - 3.6
Last 3 - 2.7
Away - 2.8
Houston Texans
Standard Avg. - 3.0
Last 3 - 3.7
Away - 3.4
Xavier Hutchinson has been the most efficient in the red zone for Houston, catching 80% of his targets with 2 touchdowns this season. He went 3 for 5 with 42 yards last week with Mills; maybe there’s more this week.
Khalil Shakir has caught all red zone targets with 1 touchdown on the year. He leads the team in yards, receptions, and targets this season.