Raiders @ Broncos November 6, 2025 - 8:15 ET
Vegas Run Game
The Raiders are willing to run the ball on late downs, which makes Jeanty an intriguing option—assuming he can overcome Denver’s strong run defense, ranked sixth in run stop win rate (32%), just behind the Seahawks.
Vegas Late Down Personnel
11 personnel - 75%
pass rate - 80%
12 personnel - 22%
pass rate - 46%
Denver Tight Ends
- Denver utilizes 13 personnel in the red zone only 5% of the time, which isn’t much but could change how we approach tight end plays like Evan Engram and Adam Trautman.
- Denver has thrown a touchdown to each tight end on the roster this season. Judkins, Engram, and Trautman all have one red zone touchdown each. If Denver is likely to reach the red zone 3 or more times, I want to consider both Engram and Trautman.
- Keep in mind, however, that the Raiders have been good at limiting tight end production.
- Bowers seems like a solid choice, though his popularity might make him a chalk pick.
Broncos Passing Tendency
- Denver passes on late downs 90% of the time from 11/01 personnel (86% usage).
- Their third-down conversion is 46%, above the 38% season rate.
- At home, with a better third-down rate and second-ranked pass block win rate (71%), Denver's pass catchers are appealing.
- Home red zone scoring attempts rise to 4.3 per game versus a 3.1 season average.
Raiders Points Upside
- The Raiders have scored over 20 points only three times this season—and lost all three games. If Vegas scores a lot, expect the Broncos to do the same. Nix with a mediocre completion rate but much more passing volume against a Raiders team putting up points is good fantasy production.
- In each high-scoring game, a single Raider (Bowers, Jeanty, or Tucker) scored three touchdowns.
- vs. Jaguars – Bowers, 3 TDs
⁃ vs. Bears – Jeanty, 3 TDs
⁃ @ Commanders – Tucker, 3 TDs
⁃ When the Raiders score big on the road, it also means major upside for one or two of their offensive players.
Comparable Defenses
-While the Raiders have struggled, leading the league with 11 interceptions thrown, the Broncos are more average in turnovers and nearly identical to the Raiders in defensive takeaways. Both teams have recorded 4 interceptions, though Vegas holds the edge with one additional forced fumble compared to Denver.
Offense Without Jakobi Meyers
The Jacksonville loss showed the Raiders' potential, as they used 12 personnel on a season-high 58.3% of plays. Michael Mayer had three catches for 26 yards on seven targets, tying a season best. Getting rookie Ashton Jeanty more involved as a receiving back could also further benefit the offense.
Thornton - low efficiency, lots of missed targets
Lockett - new, had 0 receptions against Denver in September
Bech - rookie, low target share, maybe it increases
RJ Harvey vs Jk Dobbins
-JK Dobbins has decent usage but lacks upside compared to RJ Harvey. If you believe the Broncos’ passing game will pick up, then RJ Harvey should be a serious consideration.
-Harvey typically needs to get involved in the passing game to realize his upside, which is very possible in this matchup. Dobbins has a solid floor, making him a safer option for fantasy production in certain cases.