The Patriots’ pass rate in the red zone drops slightly to 65% from 11 personnel, but increases to 57% when using 12 personnel. Maybe this information informs how big you are on Henderson or Henry.
At home, the Patriots’ red-zone scoring attempts rise to 4.2 per game. The Jets also see a minor increase, averaging 2.5 red-zone attempts in away games, compared to their usual 2.3.
Allen Lazard is receiving a similar red-zone target share to what Garrett Wilson had, but has been less productive: he has one fewer touchdown, though maintains a 50% red-zone completion rate, same as Wilson.
Breece Hall has been targeted five times in the red zone, catching just one pass and scoring no touchdowns. Allen Lazard and Mason Taylor are better red-zone options if you expect the Jets to have more than two red-zone trips.
Mason Taylor is the more efficient scorer and has a clear impact in the pass game. Overall, the Jets’ red-zone numbers and offense leave much to be desired no matter how you look at it.
For New England, Diggs and Henry are the top red-zone targets. Douglas and Hollins, while getting fewer looks, have each scored at least two red-zone touchdowns this season and remain legitimate options. For contarian plays or salary relief, players like Douglas are appealing. Diggs is the primary threat, but other Patriots pass catchers should also be considered.
It’s noteworthy that Fields leads the Jets with two red-zone rushing touchdowns. Not Breece Hall.
In the most recent game, Mack Hollins dominated the Patriots’ red-zone target share, while Douglas had only two targets. Douglas started the season inconsistently, with fluctuating target share and catch numbers.
Isiah Davis had a breakout game for the Jets on the road, and maybe there is a space for him to be a cheap option to consider. New England isn’t giving up a ton of fantasy points to running backs, so it could be a risky play.
Tre’Veyon Henderson is worth considering, especially with Stevenson and Jennings both being limited in practice this week. Henderson leads the Patriots in scrimmage yards (564) with the league’s fifth-highest rushing average (5.3).
Tyler Johnson and Adoni Mitchell could see increased usage in the Jets’ offense. While Johnson offers a higher fantasy ceiling, some uncertainty remains about how the Jets’ offense will function Thursday night.