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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

  • Target Distribution & Leaders

    • Calvin Austin is clearly the number three receiver but is currently sidelined due to injury. Scotty Miller (50%) and Roman Wilson (27%) have seen increased route shares, but have not received significant targets; instead, running backs and tight ends appear to be preferred.

    • Ja’Marr Chase merits MVP roster consideration due to the high volume of targets, especially among wide receivers.

    • In his first game with Flacco, Ja’Marr Chase was targeted 12 times, making him the fourth most-targeted player on offense in Week 6 across the league. Chase is also tied for the third most receiving yards in the red zone (55).

    • If the Bengals' offense improves at home, Aaron Rodgers will need to pass more. They rotate four tight ends, with last week's snap counts:

      • Darnell Washington (80%)

      • Jonnu Smith (69%)

      • Pat Freiermuth (36%)

      • Connor Heyward (10%)

    • Rushing Attempts

      • With Joe Flacco at quarterback, Chase Brown averaged 4.7 yards per carry but had only nine attempts due to game script and saw reduced snaps recently (53%, 54%) after starting the season at 75%. Samaje Perine’s snap count has risen to 47% and 46% in Weeks 5 and 6.

PIT@CIN October 16 2025.pdf

PIT@CIN October 16 2025.pdf

234.52 KB • PDF File

  • Red Zone Percentages

    • Metcalf has the edge over all pass catchers with his touchdown upside and target share in and out of the red zone. 

    • In the red zone, Scotty Miller, Connor Heyward, Jonnu Smith, and Jaylen Warren have each seen one target. Of those, Smith, Warren, and Heyward caught their passes, all resulting in red zone receiving touchdowns.

    • Bengals’ tight ends (excluding Mike Gesicki) account for 30% of red zone targets this season and have caught 3 of the team’s 7 red zone touchdown receptions this year.

      Ja’Marr Chase has 3 and Tee Higgins has 1. 

    • Gainwell is the preferred red zone rusher and overall back, but in a low-scoring matchup, Jaylen Warren could have more value with a touchdown upside.

  • Personnel Tendency

    • The Steelers use 13 personnel three times more than the league average, providing clarity on target distribution for Jonnu Smith as well as increased red zone touchdown potential for both Smith and Heyward.

    • The Bengals favor a pass-heavy play style, operating out of 11 personnel 60% of the time and passing on 74% of those plays.

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