Efficiency in the red zone has been a concern for the Giants. Red zone targets haven’t been caught very often by really anyone. Theo Johnson has the volume and most TDs, with Daniel Bellinger being the most efficient, catching 60% of his targets. For context, about 48% of the Giants’ red zone trips result in a TD, 29th in the league; red zone trips drop to 39% on the road.
Isaiah Hodgins is an okay option and has converted one of his two red zone targets for a TD since being acquired by the Giants. He played 79 and 66 percent of snaps in weeks 11 &12. Be mindful that this is the first game for Hodgins with Dart at quarterback.
Giants’ Jaxson Dart has an EPA per play of 0.10 with a slightly higher sack rate (8%) and lower success rate (46%) than Drake Maye. The stark difference lies in Drake Maye’s completion percentage, which is far and away much better than both Dart and Winston.
Be mindful that Charlie Bullen has been named the interim defensive coordinator for the Giants. Given his success with the pass-rushers—highlighted by Burns' 13 sacks and Carter's high-pressure numbers— maybe this promotion is a good move. Now, he must prepare to face the No. 4 scoring offense and the No. 1 passing offense in terms of EPA per dropback.
Giants are solid but don’t have Drake Maye or comparable offensive weapons. If you believe the Giants’ defense remains the same, don’t get too fancy when choosing Patriots players for this slate.
Maye has passed for one touchdown in his past two games against unremarkable teams (Jets, Bengals), which speaks to Maye needing to reignite the passing game during this last stretch of the regular season.
The Patriots allow targets to RBs 21% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. New England has allowed the 2nd most receptions (65) and 3rd most targets (79) to running backs this season.
Tyron Tracy averages 3-4 targets a game, with Devin Singletary being a viable play considering he is 2 for 2 in the red zone. Singletary also has 1 reception for 28 yards against Philadelphia and 3 receptions for 53 yards against the Bears. Note, Patriots have allowed only 2 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, tied for 1st with the Rams.
Patriots are tied with the Raiders for most receiving touchdowns allowed to wide receivers (15). The Giants will need to rely on their passing game if they want a chance to win, especially considering Jaxson Dart’s rushing potential and the associated injury risks. The Giants will need to rely on their passing game if they want a chance to win, especially considering Jaxson Dart’s rushing potential and the associated injury risks.
Time of Possession stood out statistically a bit to me when looking at both the Giants’ and Patriots’ offensive stats.
Team | 2025 | Last 3 | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|
Giants | 48.55% | 49.89% | 49.51% (Away) |
Patriots | 53.69% | 52.09% | 55.46% (Home) |
Team | 2025 | Last 3 | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|
Giants | 54.04% | 62.20% | 51.61% (Away) |
Patriots | 51.70% | 50.96% | 50.31% (Home) |